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Korean Journal of Preventive Medicine 1996;29(2): 331-346.
The change of route of HIV transmission for the past 11 years in Korea and the projection of the HIV/AIDS cases to the year 2000.
Soon Young Lee
Exploring the epidemiological trend of HIV/AIDS is required for making the national AIDS policy. In this study, the trend of HIV/AIDS incidence, rout of transmission and some characteristics of AIDS for the past 11 years in Korea using the reported cases from the national STD screening scheme were reviewed. Based on the results, the trend of main route of transmission according to the year was established by stage and the HIV/AIDS cases in this year was estimated and that to the year 2000 was projected by 'Epimodel' programme. The results were as follows. 1. Of the total infected persons, 76% were in their twenties and thirties, socioeconomically and sexually active age groups while the transmission by sexual contact overseas was decreasing, the infection through domestic heterosexual and homosexual contact was increasing. 2. In the middle of the 1980's, the infected persons were mainly prostitutes infected through heterosexual contact with the HIV positive foreigner in this county(stage l). And in the late of the 1980's the main source of infection was the sexual contact overseas and the domestic heterosexual contact(stage 2). Since the early of the 1990's, the infection through the heterosexual contact with non-regular sexual partner in this country has increased rapidly(stage 3), which was the evidence of the possibility of HIV epidemics. After that, it was expected that the infection through the homosexual contacts, the heterosexual contacts with commercial sex workers outside and the non-regular sexual contact inside of this county would increase continuously. In the result, the occurrence of neonatal infection by vertical transmission was expected(stage 4). 3. The number of HIV/AIDS was estimated at 572 to 2,313 and the projected number of HIV/AlDS to the year 2000 was around 5,800 including 627 AlDS patients. For the further study on the estimation and projection of HIV/AIDS, it was suggested that the sampling survey on the HIV infection rate in the high risk groups and the sentinel hospital surveillance system should be conducted.
Key words: HlV/AIDS; Route of transmission; Estimation; Projection; Epimodel
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