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Korean Journal of Preventive Medicine 1998;31(4): 844-856.
An Application of Delphi Method to the Assessment of Current Status of Cancer Research.
Young Ho Khang, Seok Jun Yoon, Gil Won Kang, Chang Yup Kim, Keun Young Yoo, Young Soo Shin
1Department of Health Policy and Management, Seoul National University College of Medicine, Korea.
2Department of Preventive Medicine, Dankook University College of Medicine, Korea.
Globally, cancer research has been considered one of the most important field of biomedical researches. Recently, in Korea, there are increasing concerns about cancer research and the development of national cancer control programme. For the efficient investment in cancer research at the national level, strategic approach is needed based on the nationwide information about current status of research. However even the basic data on cancer research have not been systematically collected, and are not available when necessary. The aim of this study is to assess current status of cancer research. For this purpose, this study applied two round Delphi method in which fifteen experts in cancer research fields participated. They rated each items on the initial list at the first round, and modified their responses at the second round. Panels responded that pathogenesis of cancer, research and development of cancer drug, and oncogene, etc. are the most urgent and important research fields. They assessed national level of cancer research as being 49.6% of the world highest level. Coefficient of variation tended to be lowered with the iteration. Predictive stability was evaluated to be lower in items of urgency than in items of importance and research level. Although this study shares the same limitations in the selection of the experts with many other Delphi studies, it provides a primary data that would be required to plan the national strategy of the cancer research.
Key words: Delphi Method; Cancer Research; Technology Assessment; Forecasting
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