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Farid Zayeri 1 Article
Avoidable Burden of Risk Factors for Serious Road Traffic Crashes in Iran: A Modeling Study
Fatemeh Khosravi Shadmani, Kamyar Mansori, Manoochehr Karami, Farid Zayeri, Reza Khosravi Shadman, Shiva Mansouri Hanis, Hamid Soori
J Prev Med Public Health. 2017;50(2):83-90.   Published online February 6, 2017
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AbstractAbstract PDF
The aim of this study was to model the avoidable burden of the risk factors of road traffic crashes in Iran and to prioritize interventions to reduce that burden.
The prevalence and the effect size of the risk factors were obtained from data documented by the traffic police of Iran in 2013. The effect size was estimated using an ordinal regression model. The potential impact fraction index was applied to calculate the avoidable burden in order to prioritize interventions. This index was calculated for theoretical, plausible, and feasible minimum risk level scenarios. The joint effects of the risk factors were then estimated for all the scenarios.
The highest avoidable burdens in the theoretical, plausible, and feasible minimum risk level scenarios for the non-use of child restraints on urban roads were 52.25, 28.63, and 46.67, respectively. In contrast, the value of this index for speeding was 76.24, 37.00, and 62.23, respectively, for rural roads.
On the basis of the different scenarios considered in this research, we suggest focusing on future interventions to decrease the prevalence of speeding, the non-use of child restraints, the use of cell phones while driving, and helmet disuse, and the laws related to these items should be considered seriously.


Citations to this article as recorded by  
  • Safe Traffic Behaviors in Adolescents: A Cross-sectional Study Based on the Theory of Planned Behavior
    Alireza Shahab Jahanlou, Laleh Hassani, Vahid Ranaei, Ghodratollah Roshanaei, Sonja Forward, Kristin Haglund, Forouzan Rezapur-Shahkolai
    Iranian Journal of Psychiatry and Behavioral Sciences.2022;[Epub]     CrossRef

JPMPH : Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health