, Muhammad Abdul Rohman2
, Renny Nurhasana3
, Aryana Satrya2
, Salsabila Nadya4
, Ni Made Shellasih4
, Fadhilah Rizky Ningtyas4
, Astri Hanna Waruwu4
1Department of Public Health, Universitas Indonesia Maju, Jakarta, Indonesia
2Department of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia, Depok, Indonesia
3Urban Studies Program, School of Strategic Global Studies, Universitas Indonesia, Central Jakarta, Indonesia
4Center for Social Security Studies, School of Strategic and Global Studies Universitas Indonesia, Central Jakarta, Indonesia
Copyright © 2026 The Korean Society for Preventive Medicine
This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution Non-Commercial License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/) which permits unrestricted non-commercial use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
Conflict of Interest
The authors have no conflicts of interest associated with the material presented in this paper.
Funding
This study is funded by Campaign for Tobacco-Free Kids (CTFK).
Acknowledgements
None.
Author Contributions
Conceptualization: Hartono RK. Data curation: Rohman MA. Formal analysis: Rohman MA, Hartono RK. Funding acquisition: Satrya A. Methodology: Hartono RK, Shellasih NM. Project administration: Ningtyas FR, Nadya S. Visualization: Shellasih NM. Writing – original draft: Ningtyas FR. Writing – review & editing: Waruwu AH.
| Variables | Never smoking | Current smokers | Smoking relapse | Consistently quit smoking | Total (n) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sex | |||||
| Female | 12 299 (91.3) | 39 (0.3) | 258 (1.9) | 869 (6.5) | 13 465 |
| Male | 4829 (46.1) | 445 (4.2) | 3013 (28.7) | 2196 (20.9) | 10 483 |
| Total | 17 128 (71.5) | 484 (2.0) | 3271 (13.7) | 3065 (12.8) | 23 948 |
| Pearson chi2(3)=6218.4740, Pr<0.001 | |||||
| Educational grade | |||||
| 7 | 5934 (78.3) | 98 (1.3) | 854 (11.3) | 689 (9.1) | 7575 |
| 8 | 4762 (72.9) | 116 (1.8) | 868 (13.3) | 787 (12.0) | 6533 |
| 9 | 3805 (64.8) | 158 (2.7) | 998 (17.0) | 907 (15.5) | 5868 |
| 10 | 852 (70.1) | 36 (3.0) | 149 (12.3) | 179 (14.7) | 1216 |
| 11 | 931 (68.0) | 25 (1.8) | 166 (12.1) | 247 (18.0) | 1369 |
| 12 | 844 (60.9) | 51 (3.7) | 236 (17.0) | 256 (18.5) | 1387 |
| Total | 17 128 (71.5) | 484 (2.0) | 3271 (13.7) | 3065 (12.8) | 23 948 |
| Pearson chi2(15)=451.5508, Pr<0.001 | |||||
| Age (y) | |||||
| <12 | 4028 (80.4) | 64 (1.3) | 520 (10.4) | 395 (7.9) | 5007 |
| 13–14 | 8810 (72.3) | 199 (1.6) | 1597 (13.1) | 1582 (13.0) | 12 188 |
| 15–16 | 3277 (64.1) | 155 (3.0) | 871 (17.0) | 811 (15.9) | 5114 |
| ≥17 | 1013 (61.8) | 66 (4.0) | 283 (17.3) | 277 (16.9) | 1639 |
| Total | 17 128 (71.5) | 484 (2.0) | 3271 (13.7) | 3065 (12.8) | 23 948 |
| Pearson chi2(9)=453.0178, Pr<0.001 | |||||
| Parental smoking status | |||||
| Not smoking | 7421 (73.7) | 195 (1.9) | 1181 (11.7) | 1271 (12.6) | 10 068 |
| Parents smoke | 9707 (69.9) | 289 (2.1) | 2090 (15.1) | 1794 (12.9) | 13 880 |
| Total | 17 128 (71.5) | 484 (2.0) | 3271 (13.7) | 3065 (12.8) | 23 948 |
| Pearson chi2(3)=59.9409, Pr<0.001 | |||||
| History of receiving free cigarettes | |||||
| No | 16 296 (73.7) | 376 (1.7) | 2696 (12.2) | 2758 (12.5) | 22 126 |
| Yes | 832 (45.7) | 108 (5.9) | 575 (31.6) | 307 (16.8) | 1822 |
| Total | 17 128 (71.5) | 484 (2.0) | 3271 (13.7) | 3065 (12.8) | 23 948 |
| Pearson chi2(3)=821.1495, Pr<0.001 | |||||
| Exposure to anti-cigarette messages | |||||
| No | 3565 (71.1) | 153 (3.1) | 705 (14.1) | 591 (11.8) | 5014 |
| Yes | 13 563 (71.6) | 331 (1.7) | 2566 (13.6) | 2474 (13.1) | 18 934 |
| Total | 17 128 (71.5) | 484 (2.0) | 3271 (13.7) | 3065 (12.8) | 23 948 |
| Pearson chi2(3)=39.2934, Pr<0.001 | |||||
| Single-stick cigarette purchasing | |||||
| No | 4284 (82.9) | 49 (0.9) | 344 (6.7) | 488 (9.4) | 5165 |
| Yes | 43 (8.3) | 59 (11.4) | 393 (75.9) | 23 (4.4) | 518 |
| Total | 4327 (76.1) | 108 (1.9) | 737 (13.0) | 511 (9.0) | 5683 |
| Pearson chi2(3)=787.9855, Pr<0.001 | |||||
| Peers who smoke | |||||
| No | 4113 (80.6) | 44 (0.9) | 504 (9.9) | 440 (8.6) | 5101 |
| Yes | 214 (36.8) | 64 (11.0) | 233 (40.0) | 71 (12.2) | 582 |
| Total | 4327 (76.1) | 108 (1.9) | 737 (13.0) | 511 (9.0) | 5683 |
| Pearson chi2(3)=787.9855, Pr<0.001 | |||||
| Cigarette price category (IDR/USD) | |||||
| <15 000/0.91 | 1097 (59.4) | 72 (3.9) | 469 (25.4) | 209 (11.3) | 1847 |
| 15 000–20 000/0.91–1.21 | 287 (58.9) | 20 (4.1) | 116 (23.8) | 64 (13.1) | 487 |
| 21 000–25 000/1.27–1.51 | 43 (59.7) | 1 (1.4) | 12 (16.7) | 16 (22.2) | 72 |
| 26 000–30 000/1.57–1.81 | 11 (73.3) | 0 (0) | 1 (6.7) | 3 (20.0) | 15 |
| >31 000/1.87 | 8 (80.0) | 0 (0) | 2 (20.0) | 0 (0) | 10 |
| Total | 1446 (59.5) | 93 (3.8) | 600 (24.7) | 292 (12.0) | 2431 |
| Pearson chi2(12)=17.3896, Pr=0.136 | |||||
| Single stick cigarette purchasing | |||||
| No | 1410 (70.9) | 43 (2.2) | 264 (13.3) | 273 (13.7) | 1990 |
| Yes | 32 (7.3) | 49 (11.2) | 336 (77.1) | 19 (4.4) | 436 |
| Total | 1442 (59.4) | 92 (3.8) | 600 (24.7) | 292 (12.0) | 2426 |
| Pearson chi2(3)=935.0561, Pr<0.001 | |||||
| Exposed to advertisement | |||||
| Magazine | 1058 (54.8) | 82 (4.3) | 385 (20.0) | 404 (20.9) | 1929 |
| No | 1173 (45.6) | 163 (6.3) | 814 (31.6) | 424 (16.5) | 2574 |
| Yes | 2231 (49.5) | 245 (5.4) | 1199 (26.6) | 828 (18.4) | 4503 |
| Pearson chi2(3)=96.2728, Pr<0.001 | |||||
| Social media | |||||
| No | 323 (49.3) | 50 (7.6) | 176 (26.9) | 106 (16.2) | 655 |
| Yes | 1908 (49.6) | 195 (5.1) | 1023 (26.6) | 722 (18.8) | 3848 |
| Total | 2231 (49.5) | 245 (5.4) | 1199 (26.6) | 828 (18.4) | 4503 |
| Pearson chi2(3)=8.8250, Pr=0.032 | |||||
| TV | |||||
| No | 263 (47.8) | 36 (6.5) | 141 (25.6) | 110 (20.0) | 550 |
| Yes | 1968 (49.8) | 209 (5.3) | 1058 (26.8) | 718 (18.2) | 3953 |
| Total | 2231 (49.5) | 245 (5.4) | 1199 (26.6) | 828 (18.4) | 4503 |
| Pearson chi2(3)=2.8985, Pr=0.408 | |||||
| Sports | |||||
| No | 1053 (59.5) | 62 (3.5) | 319 (18.0) | 336 (19.0) | 1770 |
| Yes | 1178 (43.1) | 183 (6.7) | 880 (32.2) | 492 (18.0) | 2733 |
| Total | 2231 (49.5) | 245 (5.4) | 1199 (26.6) | 828 (18.4) | 4503 |
| Pearson chi2(3)=160.0138, Pr<0.001 | |||||
| Poster | |||||
| No | 1456 (49.5) | 164 (5.6) | 749 (25.5) | 570 (19.4) | 2939 |
| Yes | 775 (49.6) | 81 (5.2) | 450 (28.8) | 258 (16.5) | 1564 |
| Total | 2231 (49.5) | 245 (5.4) | 1199 (26.6) | 828 (18.4) | 4503 |
| Pearson chi2(3)=9.1082, Pr=0.028 | |||||
| Variables | Base outcome: never smoking | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current smokers | Smoking relapse | Consistently quit smoking | |
| Model 1 (2006, 2009, 2014, 2019; n=23 948) | |||
| Sex (male) | 28.4 (28.1, 28.6) | 33.0 (32.9, 33.1) | 7.5 (7.5, 7.5) |
| Educational grade | 1.2 (1.2, 1.2) | 1.2 (1.2, 1.2) | 1.3 (1.3, 1.3) |
| Age (y) | |||
| 13–14 | 1.4 (1.4, 1.4) | 1.4 (1.4, 1.4) | 1.5 (1.5, 1.5) |
| 15–16 | 2.7 (2.7, 2.8) | 1.9 (1.9, 1.9) | 1.6 (1.6, 1.6) |
| ≥17 | 3.4 (3.3, 3.4) | 2.1 (2.1, 2.1) | 1.3 (1.3, 1.3) |
| Parents smoking | 1.5 (1.5, 1.6) | 1.7 (1.7, 1.7) | 1.3 (1.3, 1.3) |
| Get free cigarettes | 3.2 (3.2, 3.2) | 2.4 (2.4, 2.4) | 1.4 (1.4, 1.4) |
| Exposed to anti-smoking | 0.6 (0.5, 0.6) | 1.0 (1.0, 1.0) | 1.1 (1.1, 1.1) |
| Constant | 0.0 (0.0, 0.0) | 0.0 (0.0, 0.0) | 0.0 (0.0, 0.0) |
| AIC/BIC | 45 900 000 | 45 900 000 | |
| Model 2 (2006, 2009, and 2014; n=5683) | |||
| Sex (male) | 25.8 (25.2, 26.4) | 16.4 (16.3, 16.6) | 6.8 (6.8, 6.8) |
| Educational grade | 1.2 (1.2, 1.3) | 1.1 (1.1, 1.1) | 1.7 (1.6, 1.7) |
| Age (y) | |||
| 13–14 | 1.4 (1.4, 1.4) | 1.3 (1.3, 1.3) | 1.0 (1.0, 1.0) |
| 15–16 | 2.8 (2.7, 2.8) | 1.8 (1.8, 1.8) | 0.8 (0.8, 0.8) |
| ≥17 | 0.8 (0.8, 0.9) | 1.2 (1.1, 1.2) | 2.1 (2.0, 2.1) |
| Parents smoking | 2.1 (2.1, 2.1) | 2.0 (1.9, 2.0) | 1.5 (1.5, 1.5) |
| Get free cigarettes | 1.9 (1.9, 1.9) | 1.4 (1.4, 1.4) | 1.2 (1.2, 1.2) |
| Exposed to anti-smoking | 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) | 1.0 (1.0, 1.0) | 1.0 (0.9, 1.0) |
| Having peer smokers | 11.4 (11.3, 11.6) | 4.0 (4.0, 4.0) | 1.7 (1.7, 1.8) |
| Single-stick cigarette purchasing | 49.6 (49.0, 50.2) | 57.4 (56.9, 57.9) | 2.6 (2.6, 2.7) |
| Constant | 0.0 (0.0, 0.0) | 0.0 (0.0, 0.0) | 0.0 (0.0, 0.0) |
| AIC/BIC | 45 900 000 | 45 900 000 | |
| Model 3 (2014 and 2019; n=2431) | |||
| Sex (male) | 37.8 (36.7, 38.9) | 17.2 (17.0, 17.3) | 5.6 (5.5, 5.6) |
| Educational grade | 1.3 (1.3, 1.3) | 1.2 (1.2, 1.2) | 1.9 (1.9, 1.9) |
| Age (y) | |||
| 13–14 | 2.0 (1.9, 2.0) | 1.6 (1.6, 1.6) | 1.0 (1.0, 1.0) |
| 15–16 | 4.4 (4.3, 4.5) | 2.7 (2.6, 2.7) | 0.9 (0.9, 0.9) |
| ≥17 | 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) | 1.8 (1.7, 1.9) | 0.2 (0.2, 0.2) |
| Parents smoking | 1.8 (1.8, 1.9) | 1.7 (1.7, 1.7) | 0.9 (0.9, 0.9) |
| Get free cigarettes | 1.9 (1.9, 1.9) | 1.5 (1.5, 1.5) | 1.2 (1.1, 1.2) |
| Exposed to anti-smoking | 0.6 (0.6, 0.6) | 1.1 (1.1, 1.1) | 0.9 (0.9, 0.9) |
| Having peer smokers | 9.2 (9.1, 9.3) | 3.7 (3.7, 3.7) | 1.3 (1.3, 1.3) |
| Cigarette price category (IDR/USD) | |||
| 15 000–20 000/0.91–1.21 | 1.0 (1.0, 1.1) | 1.0 (1.0, 1.0) | 1.2 (1.2, 1.2) |
| 21 000–25 000/1.27–1.51 | 1.6 (1.5, 1.6) | 1.4 (1.4, 1.5) | 2.7 (2.6, 2.7) |
| 26 000–30 000/1.57–1.81 | 0.0 (0.0, 0.0) | 0.1 (0.1, 0.1) | 1.5 (1.5, 1.6) |
| >31 000/1.87 | 0.0 (0.0, 0.0) | 0.5 (0.5, 0.6) | 0.0 (0.0, 0.0) |
| Constant | 0.0 (0.0, 0.0) | 0.0 (0.0, 0.0) | 0.0 (0.0, 0.0) |
| AIC/BIC | 6 635 995 | 6 636 238 | |
| Model 4 (2019; n=4515) | |||
| Sex (male) | 20.9 (20.6, 21.2) | 31.6 (31.3, 31.8) | 7.3 (7.3, 7.4) |
| Educational grade | 1.0 (1.0, 1.0) | 1.1 (1.1, 1.1) | 1.1 (1.1, 1.1) |
| Age (y) | |||
| 13–14 | 1.4 (1.4, 1.5) | 1.6 (1.5, 1.6) | 1.4 (1.4, 1.4) |
| 15–16 | 1.8 (1.8, 1.8) | 1.4 (1.4, 1.5) | 1.5 (1.4, 1.5) |
| ≥17 | 3.2 (3.2, 3.3) | 2.0 (1.9, 2.0) | 1.3 (1.3, 1.3) |
| Parents smoking | 1.0 (1.0, 1.0) | 1.2 (1.2, 1.2) | 1.2 (1.2, 1.2) |
| Get free cigarettes | 1.7 (1.7, 1.8) | 1.9 (1.9, 1.9) | 0.7 (0.7, 0.7) |
| Exposed to anti-smoking | 0.6 (0.6, 0.6) | 0.9 (0.9, 0.9) | 0.9 (0.8, 0.9) |
| Cigarette price category (IDR/USD) | |||
| 15 000–20 000/0.91–1.21 | 1.7 (1.6, 1.7) | 1.3 (1.3, 1.3) | 1.2 (1.2, 1.2) |
| 21 000–25 000/1.27–1.51 | 2.0 (2.0, 2.0) | 1.8 (1.8, 1.8) | 1.4 (1.4, 1.4) |
| 26 000–30 000/1.57–1.81 | 2.2 (2.1, 2.2) | 1.9 (1.9, 1.9) | 1.7 (1.6, 1.7) |
| >31 000/1.87 | 1.3 (1.2, 1.3) | 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) | 1.8 (1.8, 1.8) |
| Exposure Ads | |||
| Magazine | 1.5 (1.5, 1.5) | 1.5 (1.5, 1.5) | 0.9 (0.9, 0.9) |
| Social media | 0.6 (0.6, 0.6) | 0.9 (0.9, 0.9) | 1.1 (1.1, 1.1) |
| TV | 0.7 (0.7, 0.7) | 0.9 (0.9, 0.9) | 0.9 (0.9, 0.9) |
| Sports | 1.8 (1.8, 1.9) | 1.4 (1.4, 1.5) | 1.2 (1.2, 1.2) |
| Poster | 1.0 (1.0, 1.1) | 1.5 (1.5, 1.5) | 1.0 (1.0, 1.1) |
| Single stick cigarette purchasing | 36.5 (36.1, 36.9) | 36.7 (36.4, 37.0) | 2.4 (2.3, 2.4) |
| Constant | 0.0 (0.0, 0.0) | 0.0 (0.0, 0.0) | 0.0 (0.0, 0.0) |
| AIC/BIC | 11 400 000 | 11 400 000 | |
| Ads exposure | ATT | SE | T-statistic | Observations |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Magazine | 0.075 | 0.007 | 10.450 | 9464 |
| Social media | −0.006 | 0.011 | −0.540 | 9478 |
| TV | 0.005 | 0.011 | 0.420 | 9488 |
| Sports | 0.102 | 0.007 | 14.520 | 9483 |
| Poster | −0.007 | 0.007 | −0.960 | 9427 |
| Received free cigarettes | 0.231 | 0.016 | 14.680 | 15 210 |
Values are presented as number (%). Ads, advertisements; Pr, denotes the
Values are presented as relative risk ratio (95% confidence interval). IDR, Indonesian rupiah; USD, US dollar; Ads, advertisements; AIC, Akaike information criterion; BIC, Bayesian information criterion.
ATT, average treatment effect on the treated; Ads, advertisements; SE, standard error. Analysis used kernel matching; Covariates included sex, age group, education year, and price.