Abstract

Objectives
Non-specific low back pain (NSLBP) is a prevalent health issue that can progress from acute to chronic, resulting in prolonged disability and diminished quality of life. This study aimed to develop a prognostic scoring model to predict the transition from acute to chronic NSLBP in primary care settings.
Methods
This prospective cohort study enrolled 112 adults with acute NSLBP from primary health care units in Indonesia. Participants were assessed at baseline and at a 3-month follow-up visit. Bivariate and multivariable analyses were conducted to identify significant predictors of chronicity. A scoring system was then developed based on the final logistic regression model.
Results
Three factors were found to be significant predictors of the transition to chronic NSLBP: age above 30 years, low education level, and moderate to severe pain intensity. The prognostic scoring model demonstrated good discrimination, with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.705, 70.8% sensitivity, and 62.5% specificity at the optimal cut-off score of 2.5.
Conclusions
This simple prognostic scoring model can help clinicians identify patients at high risk of developing chronic NSLBP. Early identification of at-risk patients could guide targeted interventions to prevent chronicity. Further validation in diverse populations is necessary to confirm the broader applicability of this model.

• Keywords: Low back pain; Chronic pain; Prognosis; Risk factors; Primary health care; Quality of life