KSPM
Search
- Page Path
- HOME > Search
Original Article
- Prognostic Scoring Model for the Transition From Acute to Chronic Non-specific Low Back Pain in Primary Health Care Units in Indonesia
- Djoko Kuswanto, Riva Satya Radiansyah, Dwinka Syafira Eljatin, Muhammad Nazhif Haykal, Rumman Karimah, Ratri Dwi Indriani, Zain Budi Syulthoni, Erna Furaidah, Andiva Satrio Rinaldi, Hafira Nushifa Putri, Jessica Felina Adi, Anak Agung Bagus Wirayuda
- J Prev Med Public Health. 2025;58(4):422-430. Published online April 12, 2025
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.3961/jpmph.24.581
- 6,269 View
- 333 Download
- 1 Crossref
-
Abstract
Summary
PDF
Supplementary Material - Objectives
Non-specific low back pain (NSLBP) is a prevalent health issue that can progress from acute to chronic, resulting in prolonged disability and diminished quality of life. This study aimed to develop a prognostic scoring model to predict the transition from acute to chronic NSLBP in primary care settings.
Methods
This prospective cohort study enrolled 112 adults with acute NSLBP from primary health care units in Indonesia. Participants were assessed at baseline and at a 3-month follow-up visit. Bivariate and multivariable analyses were conducted to identify significant predictors of chronicity. A scoring system was then developed based on the final logistic regression model.
Results
Three factors were found to be significant predictors of the transition to chronic NSLBP: age above 30 years, low education level, and moderate to severe pain intensity. The prognostic scoring model demonstrated good discrimination, with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.705, 70.8% sensitivity, and 62.5% specificity at the optimal cut-off score of 2.5.
Conclusions
This simple prognostic scoring model can help clinicians identify patients at high-risk of developing chronic NSLBP. Early identification of at-risk patients could guide targeted interventions to prevent chronicity. Further validation in diverse populations is necessary to confirm the broader applicability of this model. -
SummaryKey Message
This prospective cohort study developed a prognostic scoring model to predict the transition from acute to chronic non-specific low back pain (NSLBP) in primary care settings in Indonesia. The study identified three significant predictors: age above 30 years, low education level, and moderate to severe pain intensity, which formed a simple scoring system with good discrimination ability (AUC = 0.705, sensitivity 70.8%, specificity 62.5%). This practical tool enables clinicians to identify high-risk patients early and implement targeted interventions to prevent chronicity in primary healthcare settings.Citations
Citations to this article as recorded by
- The Role of Dexketoprofen/Tramadol in Multimodal Therapy to Prevent Acute Postsurgical and Acute Low Back Pain from Developing into Chronic Pain: A Delphi Consensus Study
Giustino Varrassi, Maria Dolma Gudez-Santos, Magdi Hanna, Magdalena Kocot-Kępska, Antonio Montero Matamala, Marco Antonio Narvaez Tamayo, Serge Perrot, Jose Luis Aguilar, Omar Al Hamad, Lu’i Al-Husinat, Raad Al-Khafaji, Abdallah Allam, Ezio Amorizzo, Nadi
Pain and Therapy.2026; 15(1): 175. CrossRef
First
Prev
