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Shahram Arsang-Jang 1 Article
Spatio-temporal Distribution of Suicide Risk in Iran: A Bayesian Hierarchical Analysis of Repeated Cross-sectional Data
Seyed Saeed Hashemi Nazari, Kamyar Mansori, Hajar Nazari Kangavari, Ahmad Shojaei, Shahram Arsang-Jang
J Prev Med Public Health. 2022;55(2):164-172.   Published online February 10, 2022
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AbstractAbstract PDFSupplementary Material
We aimed to estimate the space-time distribution of the risk of suicide mortality in Iran from 2006 to 2016.
In this repeated cross-sectional study, the age-standardized risk of suicide mortality from 2006 to 2016 was determined. To estimate the cumulative and temporal risk, the Besag, York, and Mollié and Bernardinelli models were used.
The relative risk of suicide mortality was greater than 1 in 43.0% of Iran’s provinces (posterior probability >0.8; range, 0.46 to 3.93). The spatio-temporal model indicated a high risk of suicide in 36.7% of Iran’s provinces. In addition, significant upward temporal trends in suicide risk were observed in the provinces of Tehran, Fars, Kermanshah, and Gilan. A significantly decreasing pattern of risk was observed for men (β, -0.013; 95% credible interval [CrI], -0.010 to -0.007), and a stable pattern of risk was observed for women (β, -0.001; 95% CrI, -0.010 to 0.007). A decreasing pattern of suicide risk was observed for those aged 15-29 years (β, -0.006; 95% CrI, -0.010 to -0.0001) and 30-49 years (β, -0.001; 95% CrI, -0.018 to -0.002). The risk was stable for those aged >50 years.
The highest risk of suicide mortality was observed in Iran’s northwestern provinces and among Kurdish women. Although a low risk of suicide mortality was observed in the provinces of Tehran, Fars, and Gilan, the risk in these provinces is increasing rapidly compared to other regions.


Citations to this article as recorded by  
  • Spatial, geographic, and demographic factors associated with adolescent and youth suicide: a systematic review study
    Masoud Ghadipasha, Ramin Talaie, Zohreh Mahmoodi, Salah Eddin Karimi, Mehdi Forouzesh, Masoud Morsalpour, Seyed Amirhosein Mahdavi, Seyed Shahram Mousavi, Shayesteh Ashrafiesfahani, Roya Kordrostami, Nahid Dadashzadehasl
    Frontiers in Psychiatry.2024;[Epub]     CrossRef

JPMPH : Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health