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Ji-Eun Kim 1 Article
Incidence of Scarlet Fever in Children in Jeju Province, Korea, 2002-2016: An Age-period-cohort Analysis
Jinhee Kim, Ji-Eun Kim, Jong-Myon Bae
J Prev Med Public Health. 2019;52(3):188-194.   Published online April 24, 2019
DOI: https://doi.org/10.3961/jpmph.18.299
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AbstractAbstract AbstractSummary PDFSupplementary Material
Objectives
Outbreaks of scarlet fever in Mexico in 1999, Hong Kong and mainland China in 2011, and England in 2014-2016 have received global attention, and the number of notified cases in Korean children, including in Jeju Province, has also increased since 2010. To identify relevant hypotheses regarding this emerging outbreak, an age-period-cohort (APC) analysis of scarlet fever incidence was conducted among children in Jeju Province, Korea.
Methods
This study analyzed data from the nationwide insurance claims database administered by the Korean National Health Insurance Service. The inclusion criteria were children aged ≤14 years residing in Jeju Province, Korea who received any form of healthcare for scarlet fever from 2002 to 2016. The age and year variables were categorized into 5 groups, respectively. After calculating the crude incidence rate (CIR) for age and calendar year groups, the intrinsic estimator (IE) method was applied to conduct the APC analysis.
Results
In total, 2345 cases were identified from 2002 to 2016. Scarlet fever was most common in the 0-2 age group, and boys presented more cases than girls. Since the CIR decreased with age between 2002 and 2016, the age and period effect decreased in all observed years. The IE coefficients suggesting a cohort effect shifted from negative to positive in 2009.
Conclusions
The results suggest that the recent outbreak of scarlet fever among children in Jeju Province might be explained through the cohort effect. As children born after 2009 showed a higher risk of scarlet fever, further descriptive epidemiological studies are needed.
Summary
Korean summary
제주도 아동의 성홍열 발생건수의 증가는 출생코호트 효과에 기인한 것으로, 특히 2009년도 이후 출생자의 발생률 증가가 있었다. 기존 연구와 다른 점은, 성홍열 환자 발생률이 가장 높은 연령대가 0-2세라는 점이다. 이에 대한 추가적인 기술역학연구가 필요하다.

Citations

Citations to this article as recorded by  
  • Epidemiological analysis of Group A streptococcus infection diseases among children in Beijing, China under COVID-19 pandemic
    Hongxin Li, Lin Zhou, Yong Zhao, Lijuan Ma, Haihua Zhang, Yan Liu, Xiaoyan Liu, Jin Hu
    BMC Pediatrics.2023;[Epub]     CrossRef
  • Outbreaks of scarlet fever in kindergartens in Belgrade
    Sonja Giljača, Slavica Maris, Nataša Rančić, Milutin Mrvaljević, Zorica Mrvaljević
    Zdravstvena zastita.2022; 51(1): 57.     CrossRef
  • Forecasting the monthly incidence of scarlet fever in Chongqing, China using the SARIMA model
    W. W. Wu, Q. Li, D. C. Tian, H. Zhao, Y. Xia, Y. Xiong, K. Su, W. G. Tang, X. Chen, J. Wang, L. Qi
    Epidemiology and Infection.2022;[Epub]     CrossRef
  • Recent increase in pertussis incidence in Korea: an age-period-cohort analysis
    Chanhee Kim, Seonju Yi, Sung-il Cho
    Epidemiology and Health.2021; 43: e2021053.     CrossRef
  • Analysis of Epidemiological Characteristics of Scarlet Fever in Zhejiang Province, China, 2004–2018
    Qinbao Lu, Haocheng Wu, Zheyuan Ding, Chen Wu, Junfen Lin
    International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health.2019; 16(18): 3454.     CrossRef

JPMPH : Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health