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Avoidable burden of risk factors for serious road traffic crashes in Iran: a modeling study
Fatemeh Khosravi Shadmani2, Kamyar mansori4, Manoochehr Karami5, Farid Zayeri6, hamid Soori1
1Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Safety Promotion and Injury Prevention Research center, Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran, tehran, Iran
2Research Center for Modeling in Health, Institute for Futures Studies in Health, Kerman University of Medical Sciences, Kerman, Iran. , kerman, Iran
3Research Center for Modeling in Health, Institute for Futures Studies in Health, Kerman University of Medical Sciences, Kerman, Iran. , kerman, Iran
4Social Determinants of Health Research Center, Kurdistan University of Medical Sciences, Sanandaj, Iran, Sanandaj, Iran
5Department of Biostatistics &Epidemiology, Faculty of Public Health , Hamadan University of Medical Sciences, Hamadan, Iran, hamadan, Iran
6Department of Biostatistics, Faculty of Paramedical , Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran, tehran, Iran
Corresponding Author: hamid Soori ,Tel: 09212848625, Fax: 09212848625, Email: kamyarmansori@gmail.com
Received: September 12, 2016;  Accepted: February 6, 2017.
ABSTRACT
Objectives:
The aim of this study is modeling of avoidable burden of road traffic crashes risk factors and prioritizing them in Iran.
Method:
The prevalence and effect size of risk factors were extracted from registered data by the traffic police of Iran in 2013. The effect size was achieved according to ordinal regression model. Potential impact fraction index (PIF) was applied to calculate avoidable burden in order to prioritize the interventions. The Index was calculated in the theoretical, plausible and feasible minimum risk level scenarios. Then the joint effects of the risk factors were estimated in all scenarios.
Results:
The highest avoidable burden (PIF) in theoretical, plausible and feasible minimum risk level scenarios for the lack of use of child restraint in urban roads were 52.25, 28.63 and 46.67 respectively. Whereas, this index for speeding indicated 76.24, 37, 62.23 respectively in suburban roads.
Conclusion:
based on the different scenarios used in the research, it is suggested that focus on future interventions in decreasing the prevalence of speeding, the lack of use of child restraint, the use of cell phone while driving, helmet disuse and the laws related to these items should be consider intensely and seriously
Key words: Potential impact fraction; avoidable burden; traffic crashes; prioritizing; Iran
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