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COVID-19: Original Article
- Anticipating the Need for Healthcare Resources Following the Escalation of the COVID-19 Outbreak in the Republic of Kazakhstan
- Yuliya Semenova, Lyudmila Pivina, Zaituna Khismetova, Ardak Auyezova, Ardak Nurbakyt, Almagul Kauysheva, Dinara Ospanova, Gulmira Kuziyeva, Altynshash Kushkarova, Alexandr Ivankov, Natalya Glushkova
- J Prev Med Public Health. 2020;53(6):387-396. Published online October 5, 2020
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.3961/jpmph.20.395
- 6,010 View
- 264 Download
- 16 Crossref
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Abstract
PDF - Objectives
The lack of advance planning in a public health emergency can lead to wasted resources and inadvertent loss of lives. This study is aimed at forecasting the needs for healthcare resources following the expansion of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak in the Republic of Kazakhstan, focusing on hospital beds, equipment, and the professional workforce in light of the developing epidemiological situation and the data on resources currently available.
Methods
We constructed a forecast model of the epidemiological scenario via the classic susceptible-exposed-infected-removed (SEIR) approach. The World Health Organization’s COVID-19 Essential Supplies Forecasting Tool was used to evaluate the healthcare resources needed for the next 12 weeks.
Results
Over the forecast period, there will be 104 713.7 hospital admissions due to severe disease and 34 904.5 hospital admissions due to critical disease. This will require 47 247.7 beds for severe disease and 1929.9 beds for critical disease at the peak of the COVID-19 outbreak. There will also be high needs for all categories of healthcare workers and for both diagnostic and treatment equipment. Thus, Republic of Kazakhstan faces the need for a rapid increase in available healthcare resources and/or for finding ways to redistribute resources effectively.
Conclusions
Republic of Kazakhstan will be able to reduce the rates of infections and deaths among its population by developing and following a consistent strategy targeting COVID-19 in a number of inter-related directions. -
Summary
Citations
Citations to this article as recorded by
- Evaluating the Demand for Nucleic Acid Testing in Different Scenarios of COVID-19 Transmission: A Simulation Study
Yu-Yuan Wang, Wei-Wen Zhang, Ze-xi Lu, Jia-lin Sun, Ming-xia Jing
Infectious Diseases and Therapy.2024; 13(4): 813. CrossRef - Historical evolution of healthcare systems of post-soviet Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Armenia, and Azerbaijan: A scoping review
Yuliya Semenova, Lisa Lim, Zhandos Salpynov, Abduzhappar Gaipov, Mihajlo Jakovljevic
Heliyon.2024; 10(8): e29550. CrossRef - Using simulation modelling and systems science to help contain COVID‐19: A systematic review
Weiwei Zhang, Shiyong Liu, Nathaniel Osgood, Hongli Zhu, Ying Qian, Peng Jia
Systems Research and Behavioral Science.2023; 40(1): 207. CrossRef - Assessing the medical resources in COVID-19 based on evolutionary game
Keyu Guo, Yikang Lu, Yini Geng, Jun Lu, Lei Shi, Alessandro Borri
PLOS ONE.2023; 18(1): e0280067. CrossRef - Restenosis of Coronary Arteries in Patients with Coronavirus Infection: Case Series
Gulnara Batenova, Lyudmila Pivina, Evgeny Dedov, Altay Dyussupov, Zhanar Zhumanbayeva, Yerbol Smail, Tatyana Belikhina, Laura Pak, Diana Ygiyeva, Bruno Megarbane
Case Reports in Medicine.2023; 2023: 1. CrossRef - Is It Possible to Predict COVID-19? Stochastic System Dynamic Model of Infection Spread in Kazakhstan
Berik Koichubekov, Aliya Takuadina, Ilya Korshukov, Anar Turmukhambetova, Marina Sorokina
Healthcare.2023; 11(5): 752. CrossRef - Factors Influencing Antibiotic Consumption in Adult Population of Kazakhstan
Nazym Iskakova, Zaituna Khismetova, Dana Suleymenova, Zhanat Kozhekenova, Zaituna Khamidullina, Umutzhan Samarova, Natalya Glushkova, Yuliya Semenova
Antibiotics.2023; 12(3): 560. CrossRef - Study of seroprevalence of SARS‐CoV‐2 in Kazakhstan
Mukhtar Kulimbet, Timur Saliev, Gulzhan Alimbekova, Dinara Ospanova, Kundyzay Tobzhanova, Dariga Tanabayeva, Baurzhan Zhussupov, Ildar Fakhradiyev
Epidemiology and Infection.2023;[Epub] CrossRef - Editorial: Public health challenges in post-Soviet countries during and beyond COVID-19
Natalya Glushkova, Yuliya Semenova, Antonio Sarria-Santamera
Frontiers in Public Health.2023;[Epub] CrossRef - The Epidemiological and Economic Impact of COVID-19 in Kazakhstan: An Agent-Based Modeling
Berik Koichubekov, Aliya Takuadina, Ilya Korshukov, Marina Sorokina, Anar Turmukhambetova
Healthcare.2023; 11(22): 2968. CrossRef - Seropositivity of SARS-CoV-2 in the Population of Kazakhstan: A Nationwide Laboratory-Based Surveillance
Yuliya Semenova, Zhanna Kalmatayeva, Ainash Oshibayeva, Saltanat Mamyrbekova, Aynura Kudirbekova, Ardak Nurbakyt, Ardak Baizhaxynova, Paolo Colet, Natalya Glushkova, Alexandr Ivankov, Antonio Sarria-Santamera
International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health.2022; 19(4): 2263. CrossRef - The lessons of COVID-19, SARS, and MERS: Implications for preventive strategies
Yuliya Semenova, Varvara Trenina, Lyudmila Pivina, Natalya Glushkova, Yersin Zhunussov, Erlan Ospanov, Geir Bjørklund
International Journal of Healthcare Management.2022; 15(4): 314. CrossRef - Coronary Heart Disease and Coronavirus Disease 2019: Pathogenesis, Epidemiology, Association with Myocardial Revascularization
Gulnara Batenova, Evgeny Dedov, Maksim Pivin, Igor Nikitin, Olga Ettinger, Yerbol Smail, Diana Ygiyeva , Lyudmila Pivina
Open Access Macedonian Journal of Medical Sciences.2022; 10(F): 319. CrossRef - Impact of the SARS-CoV-2 Outbreak on the Epidemiology and Treatment Outcomes of Fractures of the Proximal Femur in Kazakhstan
Bekzat Beisenov, Maksut Kulzhanov, Tatyana Popova, Assel Yermekbayeva, Nurlat Beikutuly, Kanat Tezekbayev, Shynar Tanabayeva, Ildar Fakhradiyev
Experimental and Applied Biomedical Research (EABR).2022;[Epub] CrossRef - Clinical characteristics and risk factors for disease severity and mortality of COVID-19 patients with diabetes mellitus in Kazakhstan: A nationwide study
Azhar Dyusupova, Raida Faizova, Oksana Yurkovskaya, Tatiana Belyaeva, Tatiana Terekhova, Amina Khismetova, Antonio Sarria-Santamera, Dmitry Bokov, Alexandr Ivankov, Natalya Glushkova
Heliyon.2021; 7(3): e06561. CrossRef - Comparative Analysis Of Triage Systems At Emergency Departments Of Different Countries: Implementation In Kazakhstan
Lyudmila Pivina, Assylzhan M. Messova, Yersin T. Zhunussov, Zhanar Urazalina, Zhanna Muzdubayeva, Diana Ygiyeva, Murat Muratoglu, Gulnara Batenova, Sharbanu Uisenbayeva, Yulia Semenova
Russian Open Medical Journal.2021;[Epub] CrossRef
Original Articles- Poor People and Poor Health: Examining the Mediating Effect of Unmet Healthcare Needs in Korea
- Youngsoo Kim, Saerom Kim, Seungmin Jeong, Sang Guen Cho, Seung-sik Hwang
- J Prev Med Public Health. 2019;52(1):51-59. Published online January 23, 2019
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.3961/jpmph.18.162
- 6,282 View
- 189 Download
- 11 Crossref
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Abstract
Summary
PDF
Supplementary Material - Objectives
The purpose of this study was to estimate the mediating effect of subjective unmet healthcare needs on poor health. The mediating effect of unmet needs on health outcomes was estimated.
Methods
Cross-sectional research method was used to analyze Korea Health Panel data from 2011 to 2015, investigating the mediating effect for each annual dataset and lagged dependent variables.
Results
The magnitude of the effect of low income on poor health and the mediating effect of unmet needs were estimated using age, sex, education level, employment status, healthcare insurance status, disability, and chronic disease as control variables and selfrated health as the dependent variable. The mediating effect of unmet needs due to financial reasons was between 14.7% to 32.9% of the total marginal effect, and 7.2% to 18.7% in lagged model.
Conclusions
The fixed-effect logit model demonstrated that the existence of unmet needs raised the likelihood of poor self-rated health. However, only a small proportion of the effects of low income on health was mediated by unmet needs, and the results varied annually. Further studies are necessary to search for ways to explain the varying results in the Korea Health Panel data, as well as to consider a time series analysis of the mediating effect. The results of this study present the clear implication that even though it is crucial to address the unmet needs, but it is not enough to tackle the income related health inequalities. -
SummaryKorean summary
이 연구에서는 2011년부터 2015년까지의 한국의료패널 자료를 이용하여 미충족의료과 불건강의 관련성을 살펴보고, 불건강을 매개하는 미충족의료의 크기를 추정했다. 미충족의료는 개인고정효과를 보정하였을 때 불건강에 유의한 영향 준다는 것을 확인할 수 있었고, 미충족의료가 매개하는 저소득의 건강 효과는 저소득이 불건강에 미치는 전체 효과 중 일부에 지나지 않았으며, 효과의 크기는 분석 연도 별로 일정하지 않게 나타났다. 이는 건강불평등을 줄이기 위한 정책 개입에서 미충족의료 해소가 유의미한 정책 목표로 가치가 있지만 그 한계 또한 명확하다는 것을 의미한다. -
Citations
Citations to this article as recorded by- How did unmet care needs during the pandemic affect health outcomes of older European individuals?
Julien Bergeot, Florence Jusot
Economics & Human Biology.2024; 52: 101317. CrossRef - Unmet healthcare needs among the population aged 50+ and their association with health outcomes during the COVID-19 pandemic
Carlota Quintal, Luis Moura Ramos, Micaela Antunes, Óscar Lourenço
European Journal of Ageing.2023;[Epub] CrossRef - Factors and at-risk group associated with hypertension self-management patterns among people with physical disabilities: a latent class analysis
Hye Jin Nam, Ju Young Yoon
BMC Public Health.2022;[Epub] CrossRef - Changes in Barriers That Cause Unmet Healthcare Needs in the Life Cycle of Adulthood and Their Policy Implications: A Need-Selection Model Analysis of the Korea Health Panel Survey Data
Woojin Chung
Healthcare.2022; 10(11): 2243. CrossRef - Intergenerational Differences in Factors Affecting Unmet Health Care Needs in South Korea: Comparison of Middle-aged and Older Adults
Eunjeong Noh
Journal of Intergenerational Relationships.2021; 19(1): 144. CrossRef - Identification of Unmet Healthcare Needs: A National Survey in Thailand
Sukanya Chongthawonsatid
Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health.2021; 54(2): 129. CrossRef - Factors affecting unmet healthcare needs of low-income overweight and obese women in Korea: analysis of the Korean National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey 2017
Ju-Hee Nho, Sook Kyoung Park
Korean Journal of Women Health Nursing.2021; 27(2): 93. CrossRef - Factors Affecting Unmet Healthcare Needs among Adults with Chronic Diseases
Ji-Young Han, Hyeon-Sook Park
Journal of Korean Academy of Community Health Nursing.2021; 32(2): 131. CrossRef - Association between osteoarthritis and unmet medical needs in Korea: limitations in activities as a mediator
Hooin Jo, Eun-san Kim, Boyoung Jung, Soo-Hyun Sung, In-Hyuk Ha
BMC Public Health.2020;[Epub] CrossRef - Unmet Healthcare Needs and Associated Factors in Rural and Suburban Vietnam: A Cross-Sectional Study
Ju Young Kim, Dae In Kim, Hwa Yeon Park, Yuliya Pak, Phap Ngoc Hoang Tran, Truc Thanh Thai, Mai Thi Thanh Thuy, Do Van Dung
International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health.2020; 17(17): 6320. CrossRef - Factors Underlying Unmet Medical Needs: A Cross-Sectional Study
Young Suk Yoon, Boyoung Jung, Dongsu Kim, In-Hyuk Ha
International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health.2019; 16(13): 2391. CrossRef
- How did unmet care needs during the pandemic affect health outcomes of older European individuals?
- A New Disability-related Health Care Needs Assessment Tool for Persons With Brain Disorders
- Yoon Kim, Sang June Eun, Wan Ho Kim, Bum-Suk Lee, Ja-Ho Leigh, Jung-Eun Kim, Jin Yong Lee
- J Prev Med Public Health. 2013;46(5):282-290. Published online September 30, 2013
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.3961/jpmph.2013.46.5.282
- 65,535 View
- 107 Download
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Abstract
PDF
Objectives This study aimed to develop a health needs assessment (HNA) tool for persons with brain disorders and to assess the unmet needs of persons with brain disorders using the developed tool.
Methods The authors used consensus methods to develop a HNA tool. Using a randomized stratified systematic sampling method adjusted for sex, age, and districts, 57 registered persons (27 severe and 30 mild cases) with brain disorders dwelling in Seoul, South Korea were chosen and medical specialists investigated all of the subjects with the developed tools.
Results The HNA tool for brain disorders we developed included four categories: 1) medical interventions and operations, 2) assistive devices, 3) rehabilitation therapy, and 4) regular follow-up. This study also found that 71.9% of the subjects did not receive appropriate medical care, which implies that the severity of their disability is likely to be exacerbated and permanent, and the loss irrecoverable.
Conclusions Our results showed that the HNA tool for persons with brain disorders based on unmet needs defined by physicians can be a useful method for evaluating the appropriateness and necessity of medical services offered to the disabled, and it can serve as the norm for providing health care services for disabled persons. Further studies should be undertaken to increase validity and reliability of the tool. Fundamental research investigating the factors generating or affecting the unmet needs is necessary; its results could serve as basis for developing policies to eliminate or alleviate these factors.
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